The Big 12 has been completely shaken up this season, with every team projected by preseason media polls to be on top taking unexpected losses. The only top preseason team currently sniffing the top of the rankings is No. 17 Kansas State. This indicates the Big 12 is still widely up for grabs, even for Colorado.
While mathematically every team can still end up in the championship, it’s more realistic to just focus on the top six teams. While the Big 12 is also unpredictable, for the sake of simplicity, just assume every team listed wins the games they’re supposed to against non-top teams.
Before looking at how each team can find its way to the conference title game, it’s important to understand the tiebreakers and know where each team is currently sitting.
Tiebreakers are always confusing, but this year they look like they could be necessary to declare the top two teams, so here’s a quick briefer on what the immediate tiebreakers are.
Winner of head-to-head matches (if applicable) between the tied teams will be ranked higher.
Record against common conference opponents. For example, if Colorado and Brigham Young University were tied, BYU would be ranked higher because they beat Kansas State, while Colorado did not.
Win percentage against the commonly shared next highest-ranked opponent, and then proceed through the standings.
Comparison of conference strength of schedule
Current Standings and Conference Record
No. 13 BYU, 3-0
No. 9 Iowa State, 3-0
Texas Tech, 3-0
Arizona State University, 2-1
No. 17 Kansas State, 2-1
Colorado, 2-1
BYU
Including tiebreakers, No. 13 BYU is in first in the Big 12 and has the best chance to make the championship game. They don't have to worry about playing catchup and are only facing one other top team. That team is Arizona State, which is nipping at BYU’s heels with a 2-1 conference record. While it’s uncertain what the landscape will look like when they play in Week 13, if it’s the same situation that they’re in now, then BYU will have to be careful not to lose and end up switching places with ASU. So, in other words, they are as close as it gets to controlling their destiny and just having to worry about themselves.
Iowa State
No. 9 Iowa State has also come out of nowhere to go 6-0 overall, and 3-0 in conference play. Currently, they’re beating out Texas Tech with tiebreakers. However, the two teams play in Week 10, so Iowa State won’t be able to just rely on tiebreakers; they will have to beat the Red Raiders. Beating Texas Tech will give the Cyclones a definite tiebreaker over Texas Tech, which may come in handy since they also have to play Kansas State. Though, of course, if Kansas State doesn’t lose again and Iowa State loses to them, then they’ll switch places. Put simply, if Iowa State wins out they’ll have nothing to worry about, but a loss to Texas Tech or K-State would be far from ideal.
Texas Tech
Accounting for tiebreakers Texas Tech is looking from the outside in, sitting in third place. While they could lose a game and be in the running they have to beat Iowa State in Week 10. That is, of course, as long as Iowa State doesn’t fall off a cliff and lose multiple games in the remainder of the season. The Red Raiders would be playing The Cyclones for sole possession of a top-two spot; they will also have to fight off CU in Week 11. Due to head to head being the first tiebreaker a loss even to Colorado would likely spell doom for Texas Tech’s chances.
Arizona State
Unfortunately, ASU’s loss to Texas Tech complicates things for them. While still in it, winning out would not be enough. They also need Texas Tech to lose at least two games due to Texas Tech holding a definite tiebreaker over them. Or if Texas Tech beats Iowa State then ASU and the Cyclones would be tied and the Sun Devils would have a chance to be ranked higher via the third or fourth tiebreaker scenario.
Texas Tech could also lose to Colorado. While this would be good for ASU, it would hypothetically also trigger a tiebreaker with Colorado, which would have to be settled by going to the third, if not fourth tiebreaker. Since the second tiebreaker compares records against commonly played teams, ASU beating Kansas State in Week 12 and CU beating Texas Tech in Week 11 would make it a wash.
To have a shot at making the championship game, ASU will have to beat BYU in Week 13. it would put the Sun Devils over BYU and open up a championship spot. This of course only matters if ASU wins out, and the implications will only be so high if BYU loses one game or less.
Kansas State
Kansas State’s hopes and dreams rely on Texas Tech losing. Texas Tech suffering a single loss and K-State winning out could trigger a confusing and currently unpredictable tiebreaker. However, there is a best-case scenario: if Colorado beats Texas Tech in Week 11. This would give Kansas State the tiebreaker over Texas Tech. Winning out certainly won’t be easy for them, as they have to play Iowa State in Week 14. If things go according to plan for both teams, this game will determine who gets the bid to the Big 12 Championship. Also important to note that since K-State and ASU play each other, then Kansas State winning out would mean they don’t have to worry about any other 2-1 team.
Colorado
CU is in a fun situation where they need much more Big 12 chaos and currently don’t have any outright tiebreaker wins over any other top team. Their loss to Kansas State hurt them in more ways than just record. It means that K-State has to lose again, and it further complicates things with Iowa State. The ideal and most realistic situation would be for Kansas State to lose to anyone except Iowa State. If the Wildcats lose but beat Iowa State that would put the Cyclones and CU in a situation where they head to the third tiebreaker and it would give Colorado a chance. For now, the Buffs simply have to win out, and that includes beating Texas Tech, but it’s possible.
Since BYU beat K-State it would not be helpful to the Buffs for BYU to only have one loss, especially if that one loss is to an ASU team who wins out. The easiest and arguably most realistic thing for CU fans to hope for is that BYU will put away ASU and that K-State will lose to anyone but Iowa State.
Cover photo by Brody Rector/Sko Buffs Sports
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