As bizarre of a scenario as it may seem, there is a way in which the Colorado Buffaloes, and the Big 12 as a whole, could miss the College Football Playoff come December. Granted, it would take a lot of dominoes falling in very specific directions, and it hinges on a few teams in particular, but it is a very noteworthy scenario to pay attention to as the season comes down the stretch.
First, let’s dive into how this could be possible by rule in the College Football Playoff.
A common misconception with the format of the playoff is that the “Power Four” conferences (SEC, BIG 10, Big 12, and ACC) will automatically have their conference champion placed in the bracket. While this was discussed by the committee when originally developing the 12-team playoff idea, the official ruling is: “The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded one through four and will receive a first-round bye. The fifth conference champion will be seeded where it was ranked or at No. 12,” according to the CFP.
This statement means that if a Power Four conference champion ranks lower than two “Group of Five” conference champions, that team would be left out of the playoff. So, this leaves the door potentially open this year for a scenario like that to play out with a weaker-than-normal Big 12 conference.
There are three primary teams this scenario would hinge on, and Colorado isn't one of them. Believe it or not, even if Colorado wins out, including the Big 12 Championship, there is still a chance for them to miss the playoffs. Let's take a look at each of those teams and how they factor into this race.
Boise State Broncos
With the Boise State Broncos currently leading the Mountain West conference, and as of the second CFP rankings, already being listed at No. 12 in the current CFP bracket, their job is simple: win out. The committee has made it clear that if the season ended today, Boise State would already be in the playoff, so all they have to do is maintain this standing for the final four games and they’re in. Assuming the SEC champion, BIG 10 champion, and ACC champion all make the playoff, this would now leave one remaining conference champion slot open, and filling that slot is where our next two teams come in to play.
Army Black Knights
Army, as it currently stands, is undefeated, and ranked at No. 24 in the CFP rankings. So while this puts them below the current standing of a few Big 12 teams, there is one key game that could see them make the jump ahead of all of them. Army will play Notre Dame on Nov. 23, and as of right now, the Fighting Irish are only once beaten and ranked No. 8 in the CFP rankings. Assuming Notre Dame handles Virginia and comes into this game 9-1, they will likely be ranked even higher than that. If Army can pull off an upset over them, it would add some major credibility to its unbeaten record. If Army is able to finish the job, going undefeated and winning the American Conference, this is where the chaos begins.
BYU Cougars
With Army being ranked below three Big 12 teams right now, it may seem impossible for the committee to rank the Black Knights over any of them, but this is where we see strength of schedule begin to play a major role. BYU is currently leading the Big 12 and if they were to lose one or two of its upcoming games to Kansas, Arizona State, or Houston, it is a sure thing that they would no longer be as highly ranked as they currently are. In the unlikely event that the Cougars do lose two of those games, they could even exit the rankings entirely. This would likely create a Big 12 Championship between Colorado and either a lowly-ranked or unranked BYU team.
So, what happens from here? Well, even if Colorado wins this game, its resume would be questioned, to say the least. Big 12 champions, yes, but it would then become decision time for the committee. They would be making the judgment call between a Big 12 champion in Colorado that has suffered two losses, with either a ranked win over a team near the bottom of the top 25 or no ranked wins at all (depending on the Big 12 Championship), and an undefeated American champion in Army with a win over a team ranked in the top 10. Depending on how large of a margin the Black Knights beat Notre Dame by in this scenario, there is a very real possibility the committee chooses to put them in over the Buffaloes.
While this is a scenario in which just about everything would need to go wrong for CU, it is still one within reason, and most importantly, it is entirely out of their control.