With two weeks left to play before conference championships, four teams have a reasonable route to the Big 12 Championship game: the BYU Cougars (6-1 Big 12), the Colorado Buffaloes (6-1 Big 12), the Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2 Big 12) and the Iowa State Cyclones (5-2 Big 12). No one thought these four teams would be leading the Big 12 as shown by the Big 12 Football media preseason poll.
The Utah Utes, who were picked to finish atop the Big 12, are currently 1-6 in conference play and sit in 15th place out of 16 teams in the Big 12. Another team picked to finish in the top three of the conference, the Oklahoma State Cowboys, are dead last in the conference with zero Big 12 wins.
The preseason uncertainty has now created a potentially chaotic final two weeks of conference play.
Heading into Week 13, the Cougars and Buffaloes are tied for first place while the Sun Devils and the Cyclones are tied for second. As it stands right now, Colorado and BYU control their density and would play each other in the Big 12 Championship if they were to both win out.
Two key Week 13 match-ups could shake up the final conference standings.
BYU travels to Tempe, Arizona, to take on Arizona State. This game has huge implications for both teams. A BYU win would most certainly put them into the championship game, barring multiple upsets in Week 14. If Arizona State were to win, that would put them in a three-way tie for second place with BYU and Iowa State (if the Cyclones win in Week 13).
The other key matchup is the game between Colorado and the Kansas Jayhawks at Arrowhead Stadium. Just like BYU, a win for the Buffaloes would just about wrap up the gift that would be a Big 12 championship appearance.
If Colorado loses to Kansas:
Kansas playing spoilers would incrementally drop the Buffaloes' chances of making the championship due to tiebreaker scenarios.
If the top four teams all finished with a 7-2 conference record, there would be a four-way tie for first place in the Big 12. Since these teams did not all compete against each other this season, the deciding tiebreaker would be the highest winning percentage against all common opponents. The four common opponents these teams faced were the UCF Knights, the Kansas Jayhawks, the Kansas State Wildcats and the Utah Utes.
With Colorado’s early season loss to Kansas State, a loss against Kansas would give them a 2-2 record against these teams. Arizona State has a 4-0 record against common opponents and BYU has a 3-1 record against them. These two teams would have better records over common opponents than Colorado and no matter what Iowa State does, the Buffaloes would be knocked out of contention.
If they lose to Kansas, the only way the Buffaloes make the championship is if they win in Week 14 and both ISU & ASU lose at least one game, or if BYU loses out.
If Colorado beats Kansas:
If Colorado takes care of business against Kansas and improves to 7-1 in conference play. If Arizona State upsets BYU in Tempe and Iowa State wins their Week 13 matchup against Utah, then Colorado would be in sole possession of first place and these three teams would be tied in second place with a 6-2 Big 12 record.
Iowa State has arguably the hardest Week 14 matchup against Kansas State, meanwhile, BYU and Arizona State both play bottom of the conference teams. If all three teams were to win, they would all be tied for second place–unless Colorado loses to the last-seeded Cowboys.
If BYU beats Arizona State, then Colorado and BYU would stay tied at first and play each other in the Championship with wins in Week 14.
If Colorado, Iowa State and Arizona State win out:
A Colorado win against Oklahoma State would keep them in first place, and create a three-way tie for second. In this scenario, the tiebreaker would be similar, but since Iowa State would have wins over Kansas State and Utah, they would have a 4-0 record against common opponents, just like Arizona State.
This would leave BYU out and the next tiebreaker will be in effect, which is the win percentage against the next highest-placed common opponent in the standings. Since both teams would be 4-0 against common opponents, the tiebreaker after that would be each team's strength of conference schedule. Currently, this metric favors Iowa State, whose opponent’s records are 23-26, while Arizona State’s opponent’s records are 17-32.
If Colorado beats Kansas but loses to Oklahoma State and Iowa State & Arizona State win out:
If Colorado were to lose to the Cowboys and these three teams win, this would create another four-way tie for first place. This tiebreaker would see Arizona State and Iowa State playing each other in the championship because of their 4-0 records against common opponents.
All in all, Colorado playing BYU is the most likely scenario for the Big 12 Championship as of now. Per Playoff Status, Colorado has an 87 percent chance to make the big game, while BYU has a 68 percent chance.
Arizona State and Iowa State need to win out and hope for a Colorado and BYU loss to possibly compete in the championship. The Sun Devils have a 27 percent chance of traveling to Arlington, Texas, and the Cyclones have a 17 percent chance.
With two weeks left to play a lot can still happen in the Big 12, including a wild scenario where seven teams would be tied for first place with a 6-3 record in conference play, making the next two Saturdays must-watch football.
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