The Colorado Buffaloes (3-0) travel to Fort Collins on Saturday night for the 93rd edition of the Rocky Mountain Showdown to take on their in-state rival, the Colorado State Rams.
This will be the first time in 28 years that the game will be played in Fort Collins, after being mostly played in Denver from 1998 to 2019.
Colorado leads the series with a 68-22-2 record and is currently riding a six-game win streak in the rivalry. In Fort Collins, the Buffs have a 20-7-1 all-time, with their last loss on the road coming in 1955. However, this year’s matchup isn’t going to be a cakewalk up north for the Buffs, who are coming off an embarrassing loss at Nebraska a week ago.
Last year’s game shocked Buffs fans and the college football world when the Rams almost stunned Colorado in double overtime with the entire country watching deep into the night. Colorado State played a phenomenal game, riding the shoulders of star wide receiver Tory Horton and now-NFL tight end Dallin Holker.
Turnovers were the name of the game in 2023, as Colorado State quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi threw three interceptions, while the Buffs threw an interception and lost a fumble, which was returned for a touchdown.
Look for the Rams to establish the run game first on Saturday night, similar to how they did last week against Northern Colorado, to open up the back end for Horton and the rest of the CSU passing game. Running backs Keegan Holles and Justin Marshall split the majority of the carries last week, constantly breaking off big plays and running through tacklers, so expect them to have a healthy workload this week.
One of the reasons why Colorado State made the game close last year was its ability to expose Colorado’s man coverage on defense. North Dakota State and Nebraska both have done the same in 2024, so don’t expect CU to get out of its bread-and-butter and start playing zone coverage.
The problem? Colorado isn’t good at playing man coverage. They let up shallow crossing routes constantly. Nebraska burned the Buffs on multiple wheel routes, one being a missed throw on a sure touchdown and the other resulting in a pass interference to save a touchdown. North Dakota State scored a touchdown on a similar wheel route and had a massive gain on an angle route out of the backfield that left linebacker Trevor Woods in the dust.
Yes, the Buffs have put together two solid second halves. But that’s not good enough when you’ve let up 41 points combined in the two first halves (not counting Nebraska’s pick-six). This defense needs safety Cam’Ron Silmon-Craig, who had a career-high 11 tackles against Nebraska, to bring the energy early and to motivate them.
Silmon-Craig showed he could lead this defense last week after safety Shilo Sanders broke his forearm. He and safety Carter Stoutmire have a lot on their hands but have the experience to perform at a high level in this type of environment.
Read here for the in-depth injury report for the Buffaloes this weekend.
On the offensive side of the ball, offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur has to be a better play-caller this weekend. He has an immense amount of talent on this side of the field and has failed to do anything creative with his game plan to scheme his guys open.
Especially in the run game, there is zero creativity. Running out of the shotgun, mostly running zone, no misdirection or pulling lineman and running Charlie Offerdahl up the middle constantly are all the terrible characteristics of CU's run game. Without sophomore Ohio State transfer Dallan Hayden this week, and after people have seen what Offerdahl can do, it’s time to look to the depth for Shurmur and his offense, most notably with true freshman Micah Welch.
Welch is a powerful, young back who can make a difference in the interior running game. Look for him and sophomore Arkansas transfer Isaiah Augustave, who got a few carries at the end of the Nebraska game, to be in the game plan to try and turn this running game into a net positive.
For the passing game, everyone knows what the skill position players are capable of, but it doesn’t matter if the offensive line can’t communicate properly. There were multiple instances last week where the offensive line wasn’t on the same page, including true freshman sensation OL Jordan Seaton blocking for a screen instead of a normal passing play, which resulted in sacks and/or pressures.
Couple the communication aspect with the fact that senior OL Tyler Brown and junior OL Kahlil Benson aren’t playing their normal positions (and should switch back), along with how Houston graduate transfer OL Tyler Johnson hasn’t seen the field yet, and it’s clear that there is room for improvement within this unit.
The Buffs are favored by 7.5 points, but this game should be closer than that. This CSU team is hungry and has the advantage in the trenches, plus the fact that Colorado will be without multiple starters due to injury. However, if the Buffs play a cleaner game than in 2023, and have a stronger offensive game plan, this is a game they should win, even if it’s close.
Just like last week, if CU can’t get off to a good start, and can’t win in the trenches, it isn't winning this football game. Look for Shurmur to be more creative, for quarterback Shedeur Sanders to be sharper, and for Silmon-Craig to be a wrecking ball on defense.
If the Buffs lose this game, there will be uncomfortable conversations happening next week. This team’s only signature win in the Prime Era was the Week 1 victory over TCU in 2023, but it was quickly realized that TCU was not the same team as before. Even thought Colorado State isn’t the best opponent on the schedule for the Buffs, winning a road rivalry game always carries a lot of magnitude, and this would arguably be the best win for Coach Prime so far at Colorado.
The 93rd edition of the Rocky Mountain Showdown kicks off at 5:30 p.m. MT on Saturday from Canvas Stadium in Fort Collins and will be broadcast on CBS.
Cover photo by Matt Batchelder/Sko Buffs Sports
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