The Colorado Buffaloes (6-2, 4-1 Big 12) travel to Lubbock, Texas, this week to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-3, 4-2 Big 12) in a conference clash that can be seen as an elimination game. Neither of these teams can afford another loss in conference play if they want to make the conference championship game at the end of the season.
The story this week is the Buffs’ passing game. Week after week, the run game is the x-factor for Colorado. However, they are going up against the second-worst pass defense in the country, as the Red Raiders allow 307.2 yards per game through the air.
Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders has thrown for less than 307 yards in just three of eight games this season and has been the best quarterback in college football when throwing the ball at least 10 yards down the field with a 95.5 (!) passing grade (per Pro Football Focus). Along with that, he’s only committed three turnover-worthy plays all season. Texas Tech has let up 35 or more points in five of their nine games so far this season, and everyone knows that this Buffaloes offense is capable of putting up a lot of points.
Texas Tech’s run defense is fairly average, ranking 78th in the country with 154.9 yards allowed on the ground per game. Colorado offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur has shown the past few weeks that he wants to run the ball, and sophomore running back Isaiah Augustave has been his workhorse leading the way. With 22 carries for 91 yards in his last outing against Cincinnati, expect Augustave to be the lead man in the backfield again in Lubbock.
On the flip side, the Buffs have a lot on their plate to deal with defensively, starting with the rushing attack for Texas Tech. Tahj Brooks is the name to watch for the Red Raiders, as the senior running back has 1,047 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground this year while rushing for 5.1 yards per carry.
Texas Tech only runs the ball around 40% of the time, good for 105th in the country in terms of run play rate. In order to have success against Colorado this weekend, that number will need to increase a decent amount, as they will need to chew up as much clock as possible and attempt to dominate the time of possession battle.
As with any team that has a star running back, the most important aspect of Colorado’s defense will be the tackling. Against Kansas State and their star running back, DJ Giddens, the Buffs missed over 20 tackles. That can’t happen again if they want to stop Brooks and this Texas Tech ground attack.
Through the air, quarterback Behren Morton has gotten the job done for the Red Raider offense. Morton has 2,300 yards so far this season with a 19:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio while completing 62% of his passes. He’s also done a good job of spreading the love through the air this year, as three Red Raider receivers have at least 400 yards, four touchdowns and at least 10 yards per catch.
Time of possession will be the key to Saturday’s matchup. If it’s even or in the Buffs’ favor, that’s not a recipe for Texas Tech to come out victorious. The Red Raiders need to have the ball for at least 35 minutes in this game to truly control the tempo and keep the ball out of Shedeur Sanders’ hands.
This is going to be a high-scoring game. At the end of the day, it will come down to who can force more stops, which will be an easier task for the Colorado rushing defense than the Texas Tech passing defense.
The Buffs are a 3.5-point favorite going into Saturday’s clash. The game kicks off at 2 p.m. on FOX.
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