The Colorado Buffaloes (8-2, 6-1 Big 12) have been hot on the road this season, winning all four of their previous road games by at least two touchdowns. This week, they travel to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, one of the harshest environments in football (college or professional) to take on the red-hot Kansas Jayhawks (4-6, 3-4 Big 12).
The Jayhawks, thought by many in the preseason as one of the top teams in the Big 12, haven’t had the season they expected, but have been playing spoiler the past few weeks. With wins over No. 17 Iowa State and No. 6 BYU in consecutive weeks, Kansas has the tools to beat anyone in the country. The week before, they narrowly lost to No. 16 Kansas State thanks to some costly turnovers down the stretch.
Another note about the Jayhawks: all six losses have been by six points or less. They just haven’t been able to make enough plays in the fourth quarter to emerge victorious for most of the season. Their success has also aligned with the performance of their talented quarterback, Jalon Daniels.
In the six losses, Daniels has posted a passing grade lower than 69.0 every time. In the wins, he’s been above 71.0 in all four. He’s a talented athlete who can do damage with his legs but has a habit of turning the ball over with 10 interceptions thrown and five fumbles lost through the first ten games of the season.
Another flaw in Daniels has been his performance against the blitz this season, posting a … grade against the blitz. The Buffaloes’ pass rush, which ranks atop the Big 12 in sacks by a wide margin (the gap between 1st and 2nd is the same as the gap between 2nd and 8th), needs to come out hungry and aggressive against Daniels. This unit has been fired up on the road recently, recording at least five sacks in three consecutive games in hostile territory.
One aspect of Kansas’ offensive attack that the Jayhawks will always get some production from is the ground game, led by Devin Neal. Neal has quietly been one of the best backs in the Big 12 this season with six games in which he’s rushed for at least 100 yards. The Buffs’ run defense has been stout the past two weeks against two solid backs in Tahj Brooks and Micah Bernard, holding their opponents to 77 rushing yards per game in those bouts.
However, Daniels is also a talented runner, and the Jayhawks will give him his fair share of carries. He’s second on the team in carries this season with 8.2 per game and has six touchdowns on the ground.
Colorado defensive coordinator Robert Livingston has commanded one of the best defenses in the conference all season. His unit must come up big again to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive.
Offensively, it’s about establishing a ground attack for Colorado. It wasn’t clicking for the Buffs on the ground against Utah and they gave up on it early. Aside from Isaiah Augustave’s 37-yard touchdown scamper in the third quarter last week, he and Dallan Hayden combined for 29 yards on 10 carries.
As usual, everyone knows what the Buffs will get out of their passing game. Shedeur Sanders got off to a slow, lethargic start last week (and was the first person to admit it in the press conference). He will have his main playmakers available in Travis Hunter, Will Sheppard and LaJohntay Wester on the outside, and will be looking to get in a rhythm with them earlier.
The biggest storyline for the Buffs offense is staying on the field. They are 5-24 on third down in the past two weeks and have had many drives killed by poor playcalling and decision-making on third down. On the other side, the Jayhawks are seventh in the country, converting 50% of their third downs.
Pressuring the quarterback and converting third downs will be the two keys of the game for Colorado. Pairing those with the added confidence the team has on the road is the recipe for success to get one game closer to the Big 12 Championship.
The showdown between Colorado and Kansas kicks off from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium at 1:30 p.m. MT on Saturday and will be broadcast on Fox.
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