The lights will be on at Folsom Field Saturday for another late-night kickoff on ESPN for the Colorado Buffaloes (5-2, 3-1 Big 12) as they host the Cincinnati Bearcats (5-2, 3-1 Big 12). This game can essentially be seen as a do-or-die matchup in the highly competitive Big 12 conference, as the loser’s chances of making it to Arlington for the conference title game will be minimal.
No one thought the stakes for this game would be as high as they are back in the preseason. The Buffaloes were voted 11th (out of 16) in the preseason media poll, while the Bearcats were voted 14th. Now, these two teams are in the thick of the race and can’t afford a second loss in Big 12 play.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), there are currently five teams in the conference with at least a 7% chance of winning the Big 12. Colorado and Cincinnati are two of them. The SEC is the only other conference with as much parity at the top.
One of the big keys to the game will be whether or not Cincinnati switches up its defensive game plan. They currently drop eight men into coverage at the highest rate in the country, just bringing three defenders in the pass rush (Cincinnati has the third-lowest pass blitz rate in the FBS). The 3-3 stack defense is one that Shedeur Sanders and the Buffs have seen before and struggled with against Nebraska.
As with every other game, if the Colorado offensive line can keep Sanders clean, he has the tools to carve up any defense in the country. He will have his favorite target on the outside back at 100% this week, Travis Hunter, along with a healthier Jimmy Horn.
Cincinnati has succeeded in utilizing a quarterback spy, notably against Arizona State and their dual-threat quarterback Jeff Sims (remember that name?). Sanders struggled to extend plays against Kansas State when they used a spy, so expect him to make more plays from the pocket this week.
Cincinnati’s run defense is ranked 96th in the country, so this will be a prime opportunity for Colorado to establish a presence in the run game with sophomore Isaiah Augustave. The Bearcats allow 168.6 yards per game on the ground and their linebackers and blitz packages are a key reason. Often, Cincinnati will blitz one of their backers, and if that blitz is called to the wrong gap, the rushing lane is wide open for the offense.
The Buffs can’t sit back, call simple plays, and hope for the wrong blitz to be called. They need to get creative in the run game, whether with running counters to the weak side, pulling linemen across the formation or even motioning receivers across to generate misdirection. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter how, but offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur needs to be creative in his play calling for the Buffaloes.
Cincinnati’s rushing attack is dangerous, averaging 172.4 yards per game. The two-headed snake of Corey Kiner and Evan Pryor has been lethal for the Bearcats, averaging 5.6 and 9.9 yards per carry, respectively. Kiner can break tackles similar to what DJ Giddens did to the Buffaloes, while Pryor can skirt past anyone around the corner with his electric speed.
The Bearcats like to run the ball out of the pistol a lot, which gets their running backs going downhill before they get the ball. The Buffs have seen this twice before this season against Nebraska and Kansas State and struggled to stop the run in both games. While their run defense was great against UCF and Arizona, those teams don’t attack the same way as these other downhill-style teams do.
Passing-wise, quarterback Brendan Sorsby has been rock solid for the Bearcats this year, throwing for 853 yards and six touchdowns at a 65.8% completion rate. However, Sorsby is a different passer when pressured. When kept clean, Sorsby’s passer rating is 22nd in the country, but against the pressure, he’s ranked 80th in the country (per PFF). The Colorado pass rush had a field day against Arizona a week ago, and they need to be aggressive again to keep Sorsby out of his comfort zone.
Sorsby isn’t a quarterback who will air out the football deep down the field but instead is great at picking apart defenses within 15 yards. With lots of slants and crossing routes coming across the middle, the Buffs need to tackle well to limit big plays after the catch.
In their two losses, Cincinnati has given up 27 or more points both times. Colorado has failed to score 27 or more points once this season, and if Sanders has all day to sit back in the pocket and analyze the defense, the Buffs will put up a hefty amount of points.
Colorado is currently a 6.5-point favorite (per ESPNBET) for Saturday night’s contest. The action kicks from Folsom Field at 8:15 p.m. MT on ESPN.
Cover photo via Roberto Patrick Gerra/Sko Buffs Sports
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