BOULDER – For the third consecutive season, the Colorado women's basketball team has punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. This time, however, feels different.
The Buffs kicked their campaign off in thrilling fashion, making a statement over No. 1-ranked LSU on national television. Until just over a month ago, they had just three losses, were ranked as high as No. 3 by the Associated Press, and were a projected No. 1 seed and Final Four candidate in March Madness. Now, they will not even be hosting their opening round game.
After losing six of their last eight games, most recently a double-overtime defeat in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 Tournament to Oregon State, CU dropped to 17th in the most recent AP poll. While each of their losses came down to the wire, they finished the season with a 22-9 record, 11-7 in conference play.
Still projected as a No. 4 seed in the tournament by ESPN's Bracketology as of "Selection Sunday" morning, the Buffaloes may have felt a bit disheartened to find out later that night that they were seeded fifth – just one group away from hosting their round of 64 and 32 game(s) in Boulder.
"I said earlier this week, we'll get what we've earned," head coach JR Payne said following the team's watch party of the bracket reveal on Sunday. "We didn't finish as strong as we needed to down the stretch, and I think [for] the committee, that played a role in the decision."
It's now or never to make due with this current core in March, as five key members of CU's usual rotation (Jaylyn Sherrod, Quay Miller, Maddie Nolan, Tameiya Sadler, and Charlotte Whittaker) are out of eligibility at season's end.
The Buffs have been in a similar situation before, just last season as a No. 6 seed. They acted accordingly, storming by Middle Tennessee and upsetting third-seeded Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2003. While momentum may not be on their side this time around, can CU overcome their struggles to do it again? Can they go even further?
The homecourt snub sets Colorado up against the 12th-seeded Drake Bulldogs, champions of the Missouri Valley Conference, in the first round. The matchup will take place on Friday at 5 p.m. MT on ESPNEWS.
The Bulldogs are dancing by the skin of their teeth but will provide as tough a test for a 12 seed as the black and gold could have faced. After dominating the MVC with a 19-1 record (29-5 overall), third-seeded Missouri State led Sunday's conference title game by a point with 2.6 seconds to play. That's when junior forward Anna Miller put in a game-winning turnaround shot at the buzzer in a dramatic fashion only March Madness knows.
Miller leads the Bulldogs in rebounding (10.3 a game) this season and is averaging 20 points on 66% shooting with 12.5 boards in her last four games, but the main story of this squad is a different junior.
Point guard Katie Dinnebier is the MVC Player of the Year and one of five finalists for the Becky Hammon Mid-Major Player of the Year Award. The Des Moines, Iowa native is a pure scorer and playmaker, averaging 17.9 points on 54/41/85 shooting splits and 7.1 assists per game.
In Drake's four games against Power Six competition this year (Iowa State, Iowa, Minnesota, and Creighton), Dinnebier averaged 22.8 points on 56% shooting. If that isn't already enough, she was also named to the MVC's All-Defensive team, nabbing 2.5 steals a game.
Dinnebier and senior wing Grace Berg (17.0 points/game) captain a high-octane Bulldog program that has been one of the premier mid-majors in the country over the past several decades. Though they are just 1-3 in those four Power Six games, the one win was an impressive 85-73 victory over Iowa State, this season's eventual Big 12 runner-up.
For Colorado to pick up the win, they would need an excellent defensive performance. Drake places ninth in points per game (81.7) and seventh in field goal percentage (48.6%) in the country.
Despite their offensive improvement (97th to 31st in points/game from 2022-23 to '23-'24), CU's defensive foundation has slumped this season, dropping from 49th nationally in defensive rating (84.6) to 127th (88.7). In order to cool down the red-hot Bulldogs that have won 23 of their last 24 games, the Buffs' intensity and physicality on the defensive end must match more of what kept the '22-'23 team in every game they played, especially in March.
The contest will be played at Bramlage Coliseum in Manhattan, Kansas, home of the Kansas State Wildcats. With a victory over Drake, CU would advance to face either the fourth-seeded Wildcats or 13th-seeded Portland in the round of 32 on Sunday.
A battle between the Buffs and Kansas State for a No. 4 seed and hosting location was hotly contested, and in the end, the committee may have sided with the team that went further in its respective conference tournament. Kansas State fell competitively in the Big 12 semifinal to Texas, a No. 1 seed this March Madness, while Colorado fell in the quarterfinals, albeit in double overtime to the third-seeded Beavers.
The Wildcats may also simply bring a superior resume to the table than the Buffaloes. KSU is No. 14 in the NET ranking system compared to CU at No. 16 and has a better conference record (13-5) with no losses against teams at a "Quad 2" level or lower. The Buffs have the upper hand in strength of schedule (15 to 21), but have a worrying home loss to a Quad 2 opponent (Washington State on March 2).
A Colorado and Kansas State matchup in the round of 32 would be compelling, to say the least. Both scrappy squads overachieved early on to heights unforeseen in each program's recent history, yet stumbled down the season's stretch. The game would also be a preview of the black and gold's future in the Big 12 conference.
While the Buffs have had success away from Boulder this season (4-2 in neutral sites and 7-4 on the road), the Wildcats will be no easy host. They have a 15-1 record at home this season.
Winning past this point would put CU into the Sweet 16 round in Albany, New York to face either Iowa, Holy Cross, the University of Tennessee at Martin, West Virginia, or Princeton. With first-seeded Iowa looking like the most likely adversary, though, many eyes could fall on the Buffaloes if they are able to get to the point of a rematch against the Caitlin Clark-led Big 10 heavyweights.
JR Payne's group has plenty of history with the second-seeded UCLA Bruins and third-seeded LSU Tigers that are favored to make the Elite Eight within the regional as well.
However, Colorado's mentality heading into the tourney falls solely on what it will take to win the first game.
"For now we just want to win game one," added Payne to Arielle Orsuto of 9NEWS Sports. "I wouldn't put a round on it, we just want to play great. Beat Drake, that's all that matters right now. If you beat Drake, then you try to figure out who you're going to play next."
The Buffs may have become a victim of their gauntlet of a schedule as this season wound down, as well as their "all gas, no brakes" style of play possibly catching up to them, exposing some schematic flaws. Defending and generating at the 3-point line, finding success within pick and rolls, and rebounding will be paramount for a run in the Big Dance to be put together.
One thing is for certain, however: if there is any team that has never backed down from a challenge, that revels in underestimation, and that has proven to be always ready to cause some madness, it's the Colorado Buffaloes.
Many questions will at least begin to be answered this Friday, as fifth-seeded CU starts their NCAA Tournament against the 12th-seeded Drake Bulldogs on ESPNEWS. Tip-off from Bramlage Coliseum in Manhattan, Kansas is set for 5 p.m. MT.
Cover photo by Roberto Patrick Gerra/Sko Buffs Sports
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